Drewry Shipping Consultants World Container Index recorded its fifth consecutive weekly decline on Thursday, dropping 2.6% as the market continues to cool following tariff-driven volatility earlier this year.
For Australian importers, exporters and supply chain professionals who have been navigating turbulent waters of global logistics for the past few months (and years), this week’s news offers a welcome dose of optimism.
The downturn comes after a rise in rates that began in May, one month after the announcement of higher US tariffs. While rates climbed steadily through early June, the market has since reversed course, with declines since mid-June indicating the tariff’s initial impact has not been sustained.
And a little further back, after the unprecedented highs of 2021-2022, we are now seeing a steady normalisation.
Drewry analysts expect this downward trend to continue. They anticipate a further weakening in the supply-demand balance during the second half of 2025, which will likely drive spot rates lower.
This downward trend is a breath of fresh air, but what does it really mean for us down under?
For Importers this is great news. Lower freight costs translate to a lower landed cost of goods. For businesses on tight margins, this relief could be the difference between profit and loss. The big question is whether these savings will be passed on to consumers, potentially helping to ease cost-of-living pressures.
For Exporters the story is more nuanced. While cheaper container rates make our agricultural products, wine, and manufactured goods more competitive, the reason for the rate drop (weaker global demand) is a concern.
While the downward trend is positive, it’s unlikely we’ll return to ultra-low, pre-2020 rates. Carriers are facing higher operational costs, including more expensive fuel and investments to meet new environmental regulations.
The new “normal” is likely to be a rate that sits between the historic lows of 2019, and the peaks of 2022.
Volatility remains a key feature of the market, with geopolitical announcements and labour disputes always capable of causing sudden swings.
What are you seeing in your supply chain? Are these lower rates being reflected in your latest invoices? If not, why not reach out to GenFreight Global Logistics Pty Ltd, we’re always happy to help.
