Global supply chains are bracing for the annual slowdown as China prepares to celebrate its Golden Week from October 1st to 7th, 2025. While ocean carriers have so far announced a surprisingly low number of blank sailings, industry analysts anticipate a wave of last-minute cancellations as shipping lines look to manage capacity in response to the expected dip in manufacturing and export activity.
The Golden Week holiday, a major national event in China, traditionally sees factories and businesses across the country close for a week-long celebration. This shutdown invariably leads to a significant reduction in cargo volumes, prompting ocean carriers to implement “blank sailings” – skipping a scheduled port of call or canceling an entire voyage to avoid sailing with underutilized vessel capacity.
However, with just under a month until the holiday, the number of announced blank sailings on major trade routes, particularly the Transpacific and Asia-Europe lanes, is tracking below historical averages for this time of year. This has led to a growing consensus among shipping industry experts that a significant number of additional cancellations are on the horizon.
Analysts suggest that carriers are likely holding back on announcing their full blank sailing programs to maintain flexibility and capitalize on any last-minute cargo rushes before the holiday shutdown. By delaying these announcements, they can better gauge real-time demand and adjust their networks accordingly.
This “wait-and-see” approach, however, creates a degree of uncertainty for shippers who are trying to manage their inventory and production schedules around the Golden Week disruption. The potential for a sudden reduction in available vessel space could lead to rolled cargo and booking challenges in the immediate lead-up to the holiday.
Just to take a step back for a moment, what is Golden Week?
Golden Week is a seven-day national holiday in the People’s Republic of China that begins annually on October 1st to celebrate the founding of the PRC (National Day).
While it’s officially a single holiday, it’s one of the longest periods of collective time off for the entire country. Think of it as being similar to the week between Christmas and New Year’s in Australia, but on a much, much larger scale.
What Does it mean?
1. Inside China: A Period of Travel and Spending
Domestically, Golden Week is a massive event. It’s one of the peak times for travel as hundreds of millions of people move across the country to visit family or tourist destinations. It also triggers a huge surge in retail spending, making it a critical period for the Chinese domestic economy.
2. For Global Business: The “Great Shutdown”
This is the part that is crucial for your business. For this one week, China’s manufacturing and export engine effectively goes into hibernation.
The anticipated increase in blank sailings is a standard operational procedure for carriers to balance supply and demand during periods of reduced cargo output. By strategically managing their fleets, they aim to prevent a sharp drop in freight rates and maintain service reliability on their core routes.
As Golden Week draws nearer, the shipping industry will be closely monitoring carrier announcements. Shippers who have factored in the potential for reduced capacity and have planned their shipments accordingly will be best positioned to navigate the annual slowdown with minimal disruption to their supply chains.
Logistics professionals are advising shippers to remain in close communication with their freight forwarders and carriers to stay informed of the latest sailing schedules. Proactive planning and booking further in advance than usual are recommended to mitigate the impact of any late-stage capacity adjustments, and this is where GenFreight come in. Please reach out if you have any concerns regarding your upcoming bookings, we are always ready to help.