๐ณ๏ธ ๐ฆ๐ต๐ถ๐ฝ๐ฝ๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐๐บ๐ถ๐๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป๐ ๐๐ผ๐๐๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐ง๐ต๐ฒ ๐ช๐ผ๐ฟ๐น๐ฑ ๐ณ๏ธ
A new analysis by Zero Carbon Analytics estimates that carbon emissions from international shipping caused around US$962.7 billion in global economic damages between 1990 and 2020. The figure is a modelled estimate of climate-related damage.
The research links international shippingโs estimated 19.03 billion tonnes of CO2 emissions over that period to global temperature increases and their projected effects on economic growth.
The largest absolute damages are concentrated in major economies. The analysis attributes an estimated US$280.7 billion in damages to the United States, US$113.5 billion to China and US$66.8 billion to Japan.
But the relative burden falls hardest on lower-income economies and parts of the Middle East. Shipping-related emissions are estimated to have reduced the UAEโs 2020 GDP by 0.35%, Saudi Arabiaโs by 0.34%, Maliโs by 0.32% and Burkina Fasoโs by 0.30%.
The countries least responsible for historical emissions often face some of the greatest relative exposure to climate impacts, including heat, disrupted agriculture, infrastructure stress and supply-chain volatility.
The analysis also models a pathway resembling the IMOโs proposed Net-Zero Framework. It estimates that action on this scale could avoid about 14.2 billion tonnes of CO2-equivalent emissions between 2026 and 2050 compared with business as usual.
The potential human benefits are significant too. The modelling suggests around 1.5 million temperature-related deaths could be avoided by 2100, while roughly 8 million fewer people would be exposed to unprecedented heat by 2070.
New fuels, vessel technology, infrastructure and compliance systems all require investment. But it all comes with a cost. Climate-related damage, regulatory uncertainty, fuel-price volatility and increasing customer scrutiny all carry commercial consequences.
International shipping accounts for around 2% of global annual CO2 emissions, and IMO member states have agreed that the sector must reach net-zero by or around 2050.
The near-trillion-dollar damage estimate should not be read as an argument that shipping is uniquely responsible for climate change. It is a reminder that the sectorโs emissions have measurable economic consequences, and that reducing them is part of managing long-term risk.
The cost of inaction is already being counted. The question now is how quickly the industry can turn decarbonisation from a regulatory pressure into a source of operational advantage.
๐ธ and reference hhttps://www.imo.org/en/mediacentre/pressbriefings/pages/imo-approves-netzero-regulations.aspx
